Dynamic Estimation of Indirect Economic Damages Caused by Future Flooding in the Iwaki District

"Projections of Climate Change and Impacts in Fukushima Prefecture" (March 2023) was compiled as basic data for effective adaptation measures to climate change. In this study, we focused on the impact of flood damage on industrial and economic activities among the effects of climate change in the Fukushima Prefecture and conducted a dynamic analysis of indirect damage using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model. The analysis was conducted using data from the Iwaki area, which has the greatest potential for damage. The analysis period was over 20 years, and three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios were established to estimate the potential economic damage from flooding using the DCGE model. The analysis revealed that flooding in the Iwaki area due to climate change in the 2100 period would cause indirect damages ranging from about 34.27–640.54 billion JPY among the three SSP scenarios. As climate change intensifies, the ratio of indirect to direct damage tends to increase. We found that the number of sectors negatively affected by intensified climate change is gradually increasing, with the real estate sector being the most affected.