Real-time prediction of transient thermal hazard decay during large-scale crude pool fire suppression: An algebraic model calibrated by coupled simulation-field data

The accurate characterization of transient thermal hazard decay in large-scale crude oil pool fires (D=15 m) remains a significant challenge due to complex sooting combustion dynamics and the scarcity of high-fidelity field data under active suppression. This study proposes an integrated Simulation-Field Coupled Framework to establish a robust baseline for fire suppression analysis. Field measurements of flame morphology and gas-phase temperatures were utilized to iteratively calibrate a CFD model, specifically incorporating soot formation mechanisms and incomplete combustion kinetics to enhance numerical realism. Based on systematic 15 m pool fire experiments using Aqueous Film-Forming Foam (AFFF) at varying supply intensities (12, 24, and 32 L/s), an algebraic prediction model was developed. This model, structured within the physical framework of the Stefan-Boltzmann law, parameterizes the non-linear interactions between foam supply intensity, application duration, and spatial distance. Validation against an independent experimental dataset demonstrated a mean prediction error of 15.02%, with accuracy improving to 12.01% in the critical far-field safety zone (15 m). The resulting model provides a validated theoretical basis for emergency resource deployment and the design of protective barriers in petrochemical tank farms.