Threshold Effects of Water Use Efficiency in Urbanization and Industrial Growth

Based on panel data from 14 prefectures in Xinjiang from 2004 to 2022, this study employs the Super-SBM model and panel threshold regression to assess how urbanization and industrial growth influence industrial water resource utilization efficiency (IWRUE). Xinjiang exhibits a distinct “high-north–low-south” spatial pattern: Urumqi and other northern regions show continuous improvement and Tacheng maintains long-term superiority, while southern areas such as Kizilsu and Hotan remain persistently low. Although IWRUE increases overall, regional trajectories diverge considerably. Two significant thresholds are identified—industrial output value and urbanization rate. Below these thresholds, water consumption strongly suppresses IWRUE, industrial employment exerts a negative effect, and investment plays a positive role. Once the thresholds are exceeded, the negative effect of water consumption weakens, industrial employment turns positive, and investment becomes insignificant. Policy implications suggest that regions below the thresholds should strengthen investment in water-saving technologies and productive capital, whereas regions beyond the thresholds should focus on enhancing labor quality, promoting green innovation and improving refined management to stabilize IWRUE and foster coordinated regional development.