Institutions, sectoral growth, and climate policy: Drivers of green total factor productivity in BRICS economies

As global concerns about climate change intensify, understanding the determinants of Green Total Factor Productivity (GTFP) in emerging economies has become essential. This study examines the drivers of Green Total Factor Productivity (GTFP) in BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) from 2000 to 2022, focusing on institutional quality, climate policy stringency, energy consumption, human capital, and sectoral growth. Using the Pooled Mean Group-Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG-ARDL) model, supported by panel causality tests and robustness checks, the study reveals a positive long-term relationship between GDP and GTFP (coefficient = 0.67), with bidirectional causality. Institutional quality (elasticity = 0.42) and human capital (elasticity = 0.25) significantly enhance GTFP, while climate policy stringency initially reduces GTFP (–0.60) but becomes neutral over time. Sectoral contributions show that industry (0.18) and services (0.13) have the most significant impacts on GTFP. The study contributed to an integrated approach combining macroeconomic, institutional, and environmental factors. Policy implications emphasize the need for stronger institutions and energy efficiency. Future research should explore broader geographic contexts and micro-level dynamics to strengthen GTFP models.