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November 20, 2017Open Access

A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Power-Distribution System Reliability: A Policy Analysis for Ghana, 2000–2026

Kwame Asante Ama Serwaa Mensah

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Key Points

Developing a Bayesian hierarchical model to assess the reliability of Ghana's power distribution system components.
Utilized a Bayesian hierarchical Weibull survival model for analysis.
Treated failure times of key components as right-censored data.
Estimated posterior distributions using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling.
Significant spatial variability in reliability observed across regions.
High probability (0.92) that northern region component failure rates exceed the national median.
Distribution transformers identified as responsible for 42% of system unreliability.

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Implication

Policy analysis demonstrates reliability disparities in Ghana's power grid, suggesting targeted investment strategies.

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Cite This Study

Asante et al. (2017) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69b4fbeab39f7826a300c785 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18972660

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