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March 15, 2026SHILAP Revista de lepidopterología1 citationsOpen Access

Development and validation of an interpretable ensemble model for predicting androgen receptor status in triple-negative breast cancer: a multi-center study

MRMei RuanWestlake UniversityLCLixiu CaoYLYongliang LiuHospital of Hebei Province

Key Points

  • This study aims to create and validate a model for predicting androgen receptor status in triple-negative breast cancer using noninvasive techniques.
  • Included 379 TNBC patients from three institutions for model training and validation.
  • Extracted radiomic features from MRI segments using a Segment Anything Model-based tool.
  • Constructed three predictive models (radiomics, MRI, integrated ensemble) using Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM.
  • Assessed model performance through ROC analysis, calibration, and decision curve analysis.
  • Employed SHapley Additive exPlanations for model interpretability.
  • The integrated model exhibited the highest performance (AUC = 0.891 in training).
  • External validation maintained strong performance (AUC = 0.863 and 0.818).
  • Model demonstrated high sensitivity (78–85%) and specificity (82–87%) across cohorts.
  • SHAP analysis identified skewness and surface-to-volume ratio as key predictors.

Abstract

Purpose Reliable assessment of androgen receptor (AR) status in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is critical for targeted therapy but remains challenging due to biopsy limitations from intratumoral heterogeneity. This study aimed to develop and validate an interpretable ensemble model integrating radiomics and multiparametric MRI for noninvasive AR status prediction. Materials and methods A total of 379 TNBC patients from three institutions were included for model training and external validation. All patients underwent preoperative dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI. Radiomic features were extracted from a Segment Anything Model-based segmentation tool and underwent multi-step selection. Multiparametric MRI features were evaluated using standardized criteria. Three predictive models, including a radiomics model, an MRI model, and an integrated ensemble model, were constructed using a stacking framework with Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM. Model performance was assessed by ROC analysis, calibration, and decision curve analysis. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) were applied for interpretability. Results The integrated model achieved the best performance (AUC = 0.891 in the training cohort), outperforming radiomics (AUC = 0.836) and MRI models (AUC = 0.753). External validation confirmed robustness (AUC = 0.863 and 0.818). The integrated model maintained high sensitivity (78–85%) and specificity (82–87%) across cohorts. SHAP analysis revealed radiomic descriptors, especially skewness and surface-to-volume ratio, as the most influential predictors. Conclusions An interpretable ensemble model integrating radiomics and multiparametric MRI achieved robust and generalizable performance for AR status prediction in TNBC. This noninvasive approach may assist in patient stratification for AR-targeted therapy and support personalized treatment strategies.

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Cite This Study

Ruan et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69b64c33b42794e3e660d8fchttps://doi.org/10.3389/fonc.2026.1743315
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