Temporal Trend in Hiv Incidence Among Older Adults in Santa Catarina: 2014–2023

Demographic changes can impact the epidemiological profile of several diseases, including HIV. Although historically HIV has been more associated with younger populations, recent evidence points to a growing incidence among older adults. This study aimed to analyze the temporal trend in HIV incidence among the older population of the state of Santa Catarina, by sex and age group. This was an ecological time-trend study conducted between 2014 and 2023 using data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Incidence rates were calculated for the population aged ≥ 60 years, by sex (male, female), age group (60–69, 70–79, ≥ 80), and year of diagnosis. For trend analysis, the Prais–Winsten regression model was used in Stata 14. As the data are publicly available and non-identifiable, ethical approval was not required (according to Resolution No. 674, May 6, 2022). In the period, 852 HIV cases were recorded among older adults. Incidence coefficients were higher among men compared with women, except in 2023. The female sex showed an incidence coefficient of 5.0 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 2014, increasing to 8.4 at the end of the series, representing a 68% increase (male rate: 6.6 in 2014; 8.1 in 2023). When stratified by age, older adults aged 60–69 years had considerably higher HIV coefficients than the other age groups. At the beginning of the series, the 60–69 group had a coefficient of 7.8 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, increasing to 12.4 per 100,000 at the end. In trend analysis, older women showed a significant increase in HIV incidence over time (APC: 3.59; 95% CI: 1.38–6.21; p = 0.013). When age groups were analyzed, all were classified as stable; however, the 60–69 group had a p value close to 5% (p = 0.069, classified as stability). A rising trend in HIV incidence was observed among older women in Santa Catarina, highlighting increasing vulnerability in this population that has historically been less targeted by prevention campaigns.