A General Decision Model for Cost-Volume-Profit Analysis Under Uncertainty: A Comment.

Abstract Wei Shih, professor of applied statistics and operation research, presented a general decision model that accounts for uncertainty in demand, while assuming that costs and selling prices are known parameters. Under this model, Shih developed methods for computing the optimal production level and formulas for the mean, variance and distribution of the amount of profit. In this article, the author investigates how management should perform break-even analysis when confronted with production decisions for situations satisfying Shih's model. At first the author demonstrates by argument and counter-example that Shih's analysis of the break-even decision is incorrect and then presents a valid approach to break-even analysis for the general decision model. Shih's model assumes that price, variable cost and fixed cost are known parameters. Demand has to be determined by the decision maker. Usually the decision maker will choose the value of demand so as to maximize the expected profit. According to Shih's model, since the profit is a linear function of demand, it is only necessary to compare the average demand with the break-even point to determine the profitability of new product.