An Analysis of the Formation Structure of Participation Intention in Marine Leisure Surfing : Focusing on Choice Attributes and Individual Characteristics

This study examines the determinants of participation intention in marine leisure activities, focusing on surfing. By analyzing participation intention as a binary choice, this research explores the initial stages of demand formation, aiming to identify the relative influence of choice attributes versus individual characteristics and to clarify the underlying decision-making structure. Survey data1 from marine leisure participants were analyzed, with future participation intention over the next period treated as the dependent variable. Independent variables included program, price, and human factors, with demographic and behavioral traits as control variables. Binary logistic regression was used to estimate average effects, while decision tree analysis explored conditional decision-making pathways. Logistic regression revealed that individual characteristics—such as age, household income, and prior experience—significantly influenced participation intention, whereas choice attributes showed no significant direct effect. However, decision tree analysis demonstrated that choice attributes, specifically facility and price factors, operated as conditional determinants depending on the participant's age and income levels. Overall, the findings suggest a staged decision-making process where individual characteristics primarily shape initial participation intention, while choice attributes exert secondary and context-dependent influences. This study provides critical insights for developing targeted policies and marketing strategies in the marine leisure industry.