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March 19, 20260 citationsOpen Access

Stochastic Optimisation for Tomato Paste Production Amid Rainfall Variability

Stochastic Optimisation for Tomato Paste Production Under Rainfall Uncertainty: A Case Study of Northern Nigeria

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Authors

ATAdedeji TaiwoAJAbiola Jimoh

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Overview

This analysis develops a stochastic model to enhance tomato production outcomes under rainfall uncertainty, suggesting improved resilience for processors in Northern Nigeria.

Key Points

  • The aim is to optimize tomato paste production planning amidst rainfall uncertainty in Northern Nigeria.
  • Developed a two-stage stochastic programming model
  • Calibrated model with historical data on rainfall, yield, and prices
  • Engaged processors and agents in validation workshops to assess practical usability
  • Achieved a Value of Stochastic Solution of ₦8.4 million (18.6%) over a deterministic approach
  • Reduced expected spoilage by 55%, from 412 to 187 tonnes
  • Shifted production capacity focus towards paste production as a buffer against yield volatility

Cite This Study

Taiwo et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69bb92d1496e729e6298078ehttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19073814
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