Analysis and uncertainty quantification of thermal transport measurements through Bayesian parameter estimation

The thermal transport community is increasingly interested in rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ) of their measurements. In this study, we argue that Bayesian parameter estimation (BPE) represents a powerful framework for both analysis/fitting and UQ. We provide a detailed walkthrough of the technique (including code to duplicate our results) and example analysis based on measuring the thermal conductance of a gold/sapphire interface with frequency domain thermoreflectance. Comparisons are made against traditional analysis/UQ techniques adopted by the thermal transport community. Notable advantages of BPE include the interpretability of its results, including the capacity to indicate incorrect input assumptions, as well as a way to balance overall goodness of fit against prior knowledge of feasible parameter values. In some cases, incorporating this additional information can affect not only the magnitude of error bars but also the inferred values themselves.