From oil to renewable energy systems: China's role in asymmetric interdependence and soft power

Neoliberal institutionalism posits that asymmetric interdependence is a source of state power, exercised through mechanisms of control of resources as well as the capacity to set agenda and standards. This paper explores asymmetric interdependence in oil and renewable energy (solar, wind and hydropower) in two ways. First, using trade data,and analyzing global value chains, we detect distinct patterns of asymmetric interdependence between oil and renewable resources. Saudi Arabia, Canada and the United States are major upstream and midstream suppliers while China is a minor player and dependent on oil imports. On the other hand, China dominates trade in the upstream, midstream and downstream sectors of the solar energy system, and to a lesser extent, wind and hydropower systems. Second, using the case of the Brazilian Belo Monte – Rio de Janeiro regional interconnector, we show that China is shaping asymmetrical interdependence in the Global South through its dominance of grid and high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission interconnection standards. Domination is advanced by shaping international agenda and technical standards through its state-owned enterprises in the power sector. • This paper analyzes the dynamics shift of power resources from oil to clean energy. • Control of upstream oil has diversified beyond OPEC to new players in the West. • This paper explores the complexity of PV, wind and hydro and lithium-ion battery global value chains. • China dominates trade in the upstream, midstream and downstream sectors of the solar energy system. • New sources of technological interdependence have emerged as an instrument of soft power.