Assessment of Dumpsite Air Pollution on Child Respiratory Health: Spatio-Temporal Risk and Cost-Benefit Analysis

Air pollution from open dumpsites poses a severe but under-quantified threat to children in urban Nigeria. This paper combined high-resolution spatio-temporal air monitoring and community survey of health in order to evaluate the effects of dumpsite emissions on Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI) among children below the age of five years in Owerri, Nigeria. We implemented automated systems to check the criteria pollutants of NO 2 , SO 2 , CO as well as O 3 in seven dumpsites and one control site, and surveyed 546 mothers and 2355 children. Findings indicated that SO 2 , CO, and O 3 were 2-4 times higher than the National Ambient Air Quality Standards over a range of 90-137 km 2 . The exposure based on multi-pollutant (Health-Adjusted Air Quality Index or HAQI) showed constantly poor to dangerous levels (147 423) in the air, with the major risk factors being SO 2 and CO. The prevalence of ARI in exposed children was 1.65, and the mortality rate due to the proximity was 0.38. The CO and O 3 were found to be the main statistical predictors of ARI in high-risk sites as a result of single-pollutant regression. Recalibrated cost-benefit analysis, adjusted to a total exposed population, showed that the Net Present Value of dumpsite relocation is 3.13 million plus an 11.99 Benefit-Cost Ratio, and is economically viable to parameter uncertainty with sensitivity analysis. This research gives strong reasons to believe that dumpsite gaseous pollutants are a significant risk of respiratory disease in children and that engineered relocation is a cost-efficient intervention by the government in the community because of its health benefits. Our policy recommendations are urgent intervention to cover dumpsite placement assistance 2 km away, ≥ 2 km away residences, and real-time air quality alerts as solutions to maintain child health in Nigerian cities. • The study quantifies 0.38% child mortality from dumpsite-driven acute respiratory infections (ARI); the first spatiotemporal linkage of multi-pollutant exposure to pediatric outcomes in Nigeria. • The study reveals HAQI (Health-adjusted Air Quality Index) > 423 exceeding single-pollutant AQI (by 2.2) due to synergistic SO₂/CO/O₃ effects. • Identified CO and O₃ as dominant ARI predictors (regression p <0.01) with dry season concentrations surpassing NAAQS by 255% (O₃) and 155% (CO). • Demonstrated 20:1 cost-benefit ratio for dumpsite relocation health savings outweigh intervention costs by 2030, offering a replicable LMIC economic model. • Aligned with UN SDGs 3.9/11—providing policymakers with evidence to prioritize waste management as a child health intervention