Confidence-Aware Topology Identification in Low-Voltage Distribution Networks: A Multi-Source Fusion Method Based on Weakly Supervised Learning

The topology identification (TI) of low-voltage distribution networks (LVDNs) is the foundation for their intelligent operation and lean management. However, the existing identification methods may produce inconsistent results under measurement noise, missing data, and heterogeneous load behaviors. Without principled multiple method fusion and meter-level confidence quantification, the reliability of the identification results is questionable in the absence of ground-truth topology. To address these challenges, a confidence-aware TI (Ca-TI) method for the LVDN based on weakly supervised learning (WSL) and Dempster–Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is proposed, aiming to infer each meter’s latent topology connectivity label and quantify the meter-level confidence without ground truth by fusing different identification methods. Specifically, within the framework of data programming (DP) in WSL, different TI methods were modeled as labeling functions (LFs), and a weakly supervised label model (WSLM) was adopted to learn each method’s error pattern and each meter’s posterior responsibility; within the framework of D-S evidence theory, an uncertainty-aware basic probability assignment (BPA) was constructed from each meter’s posterior responsibility, with posterior uncertainty allocated to ignorance, and was further discounted according to the missing data rate; subsequently, a consensus-calibrated conflict-gated (CCCG)-enhanced D-S fusion rule was proposed to aggregate the TI results of multiple methods, producing the final TI decisions with meter-level confidence. Finally, the test was carried out in both simulated and actual low-voltage distribution transformer areas (LVDTAs), and the robustness of the proposed method under various measurement noise and missing data was tested. The results indicate that the proposed method can effectively integrate the performances of various TI methods, is not adversely affected by extreme bias from any single method, and provides the meter-level confidence for targeted on-site verification. Further, an engineering deployment scheme with cloud–edge collaboration is further discussed to support scalable implementation in utility environments.