The Geopolitical Risk Footprint on Inflation-Led Money Dynamics: Developed Versus Rising International Currencies

This study sets the spotlight on the dynamic interplay between geopolitical risk (GPR, GPR acts, GPR threats) and developed as well as rising national currencies. Examination is conducted through the lens of elevated inflation induced by the Russia-Ukraine and subsequent conflicts. Using data from 14 September 2021 to 23 May 2025 and a spectrum of Quantile-VAR specifications, investigation focuses on alternative market conditions. GPR serves for absorbing national currency systemic risk. Safe havens like the US dollar lead causality in major national markets. In bear market conditions, geopolitical uncertainty has a larger footprint on major currencies while GPR threats mainly affect rising national currencies. Extreme inflation – like in the Turkish lira case-is the main settler of systemic risk in developing currencies. Highly devaluated currencies trigger crises in bear markets while work as money non-grata in bull markets and strengthen the risk appetite for alternative risky currencies. These outcomes contribute to the Guzman and Stiglitz (2021) theory about pseudo-wealth in crises.