Bridging the Urban–Rural Tourism Satisfaction Gap: A Service Capacity Perspective on Territorial Development Challenges

What drives persistent urban–rural tourism satisfaction gaps: whether from promotional over-promising or structural service deficits? This distinction fundamentally determines whether territorial development resources should target marketing sophistication or productive capacity, yet remains empirically unresolved. Text-mining for 33,174 attractions across 349 Chinese cities reveals that both rural and urban destinations systematically under-promise, with description sentiment falling consistently below actual ratings, contradicting the “digital facade” hypothesis. Urban attractions nonetheless generate more positive surprises through superior service delivery (gap = 0.62 vs. 0.55). Sentiment measurement robustness is validated through triangulation of two independent dictionary-based methods (r=0.58, p<0.001) and cross-paradigm verification using a pre-trained BERT transformer (τ=1.000 ranking stability). SHAP decomposition quantifies the policy implication: controllable service quality indicators, including description quality (23.2%), information richness (30.7%), and price positioning (16.5%), collectively explain over 70% of the variance in satisfaction, while fixed geographic factors (rural classification 14.9% and city-tier 14.7%) account for 29.6%, yielding a controllable-to-geographic ratio of 2.4:1. Propensity score matching with six covariates confirms a 0.074–0.100-point rural penalty persists after controlling for confounders, while non-linear analysis demonstrates that rural attractions face no marginal productivity disadvantage, and the challenge is baseline capacity, not investment efficiency. For policymakers pursuing Sustainable Development Goals 8, 10, and 12 through tourism-led regional strategies, these results mandate redirecting resources from demand-side expectation management toward supply-side infrastructure and workforce development, the true binding constraint on rural competitiveness.