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March 25, 2026American Journal of Mathematical and Computer ModellingOpen Access

Modeling Extreme Rainfall Events Using Stationary and Non-stationary Peaks-Over-Threshold Frameworks in EVT

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Authors

SMSimion MbumbuAWAnthony WaitituHIHerbert Imboga

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Overview

Models extreme rainfall events in Kenya, suggesting improved models for risk assessment.

Key Points

  • The study aims to develop a non-stationary Generalized Pareto Distribution to better model extreme rainfall events.
  • Developed a non-stationary GPD and compared it with stationary Peaks-Over-Threshold models.
  • Incorporated environmental covariates like Sea Surface Temperature, Atmospheric Moisture Content, and Impervious Surface Percentage.
  • Utilized an Extreme Value Theory-based threshold exceedance framework for modeling.
  • The best-fitting model showed variable shape and scale parameters influenced by SST and AMC.
  • Lower information criterion values indicated a superior model fit.
  • Likelihood-ratio test results were significant at p < 0.05, supporting the findings.

Cite This Study

Mbumbu et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69c37adcb34aaaeb1a67ccdchttps://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajmcm.20261101.16
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