The Gap in Renewable Energy Between the V4 and the EU Average: An Empirical Comparison by Sector and Technology

This study benchmarks renewable energy source (RES) utilization in the Visegrad Four (V4) against the EU average using Eurostat data for 2014–2022. A multi-layer framework was used to combine technology-specific per-capita indicators, sectoral RES shares, cluster analysis, and panel regression with fixed effects. The EU substantially exceeds V4 in hydropower (774.06 vs. 270.19 kWh/person), wind (972.06 vs. 161.30 kWh/person), and solar technologies. The electricity-sector gap is most pronounced (EU 41.17% vs. V4 18.69%). Paired t-tests confirmed a statistically significant persistent gap (t(8) = −20.78; p < 0.001), consistent with delayed convergence. Cluster analysis assigned all V4 countries to a single moderate-RES tier, structurally separated from Western and Nordic clusters; panel regression confirmed that the V4 coefficient was robustly negative (β = −5.783 to −9.088 pp) even after policy controls, with fossil lock-in (β = −2.404 pp) emerging as the most consistent structural determinant, whereas V4 × fossil lock-in interaction was positive (β = +2.558 pp), suggesting partial mitigation through differentiated pathways. Intra-V4 heterogeneity—Slovakia’s hydropower lock-in, Hungary’s wind prohibition, Poland’s coal dependency, and Czech Republic’s curtailed feed-in tariff—argues against homogeneous policy responses; results support technology-specific strategies (wind/solar PV in Poland/Czech Republic; solar thermal/heat pumps in Hungary/Slovakia) and grid modernisation as cross-cutting priority.