Machine Learning-Based Production Dynamics Prediction for Chemical Composite Cold Production

Accurate prediction of production dynamics in chemical composite cold production (CCCP) for heavy oil reservoirs remains challenging due to complex multi-phase fluid interactions and nonlinear flow regime transitions. Traditional numerical simulations are computationally expensive and rely heavily on detailed geological characterization. To address these limitations, a data-driven predictive framework integrating physical mechanisms with machine learning is proposed. A dual-driven feature selection strategy combining Spearman rank correlation and the Entropy Weight Method (EWM) was applied to quantify nonlinear parameter correlations and data informativeness, identifying injection-production balance and development and maximum adsorption capacity as dominant factors controlling oil production fluctuations. Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) was used to construct a representative parameter space, followed by weighted standardization. A Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model was then trained to jointly predict key production indicators. Field validation shows strong predictive capability, with a coefficient of determination above 0.94 and relative fitting error below 5%. The method reduces computational time by over two orders of magnitude while maintaining high precision.