Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Driving Factors of the Energy Carbon Footprint and Vegetation Carbon Carrying Capacity in China

This study systematically quantified the carbon footprint generated by China’s consumption of eight major fossil energy sources (coal, coke, crude oil, petrol, kerosene, diesel, fuel oil, and natural gas), alongside the carbon carrying capacity of four vegetation ecosystems (forest, grassland, wetland, and crop), based on the IPCC inventory methodology. ArcGIS spatial analysis was employed to reveal the spatiotemporal distribution, while the STIRPAT model identified drivers of energy carbon footprint pressure (ECFP). Concurrently, the GM (1,1) model predicted evolution trends for both energy carbon footprint (ECF) and vegetation carbon carrying capacity. Results indicated that: (1) ECF increased from 12,039.89 million tons in 2015 to 13,896.41 million tons in 2022, representing a cumulative growth of 15.42%; (2) vegetation carbon carrying capacity increased from 4710.54 million tons in 2015 to 5300.76 million tons in 2022, representing a cumulative growth of 12.53%; (3) STIRPAT model analysis indicated that economic growth and technological progress were the dominant factors influencing ECFP; and (4) GM (1,1) predicted that the ECF would continue to grow at a slower pace by 2026, while vegetation carbon carrying capacity would steadily increase. It was concluded that optimizing the energy structure and strengthening vegetation conservation could effectively alleviate ECFP, providing crucial support for the carbon neutrality objectives of China.