Strategising steel sector capacities and employment in the Global South: the case of South Africa

Steel producers in the Global South face increasing pressure from trade and required emissions cuts. Renewable-rich regions could become key suppliers of low-carbon steel, but this vision remains conceptual and risks perpetuating extractivist patterns. Using the Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD), we assess technological, spatial and employment implications of South Africa’s steel transition. We find that an early push for hydrogen-based capacities is beneficial – but needs to be embedded in a broader just transition framework.