China, the world's largest generator of waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE), faces growing challenges in managing household WEEE and recovering embedded resources. This study develops a long-term, provincial-level assessment of household WEEE generation and anthropogenic mineral (AM) reserves in China from 1978 to 2050. Using a stock-based material flow analysis, we quantify in-use stocks, WEEE generation, and associated AM for 10 household appliance categories (14 types) across 31 provinces. Annual household WEEE generation exceeded 400 million units in 2023, dominated by cell phones, computers, air conditioners, and washing machines, with eastern and southeastern provinces contributing the largest volumes. Embedded AM reserves in 2023 include about 228 thousand tonnes of copper (9.4% of national recycled copper), 21 tonnes of gold (5.6% of primary production), and 7 tonnes of palladium (50% of primary production), with a theoretical metal value of over 5 billion USD. Yet, existing formal recycling infrastructure captures only ∼30% of this potential, owing to pronounced spatial and category-specific mismatches. Our results identify critical gaps and province-level hotspots, providing a quantitative basis for spatially targeted WEEE management and infrastructure planning to enhance resource recovery in China's transition toward a circular economy.
Yu et al. (2026) studied this question.