The Influence of Weather Conditions and Anthropogenic Impact on the Desertification Area of the Astrakhan Region by to Remote Monitoring Data

Desertification affects almost the entire land area in the Astrakhan region. The relevance of the study is justified by the need to identify the impact of anthropogenic impact and weather conditions on the formation of areas of desertification with the determination of the area of land affected by such effects. Modern methods of remote sensing of the Earth with sufficient accuracy, determined by the accuracy of the geo- positioning of satellite images, make it possible to determine the spatial characteristics of desertification sites in the study area using geoinformation systems, and the accumulated information for the period 2002 to 2025 makes it possible to identify actual changes in such characteristics. The determination of the change in the area of desertification for each year is carried out on the basis of retrospective and up- to- date satellite survey data, geoinformation analysis of satellite images and the establishment of up- to- date data on the projective coverage. The spectral images are processed in the QGIS program, where raster and vector cartographic layers of the local GIS are created to obtain a vector layer of spatial location of desertification sites. A layout of a map of desertification sites is being developed based on geoinformation layers. It has been established that 1161 thousand hectares of the land area are subject to desertification as a result of anthropogenic impact and weather conditions. Weather station data makes it possible to determine the weather conditions in the region according to the years of research and to identify their relationship with the area of desertification. The amount of precipitation during the study period is not constant, the minimum value of 127 mm was recorded in 2018, and the maximum value was 388 mm in 2016. The main factor of anthropogenic impact is the grazing of livestock, especially sheep and goats, in which, in conditions of non- compliance with grazing standards and rules, forage vegetation is destroyed or its projective cover is reduced, which leads to desertification. The number of sheep and goats increased from 695,000 in 2002 to 1,674,000 in 2016. In this regard, taking into account the change in the number of livestock during the research period allows us to determine the impact of this anthropogenic factor on the change in the area of desertification in the region. As a result of the research, a correlation coefficient was established between the actual area of desertification during the research period and changes in the number of sheep and goats - 0.676, showing that the relationship is quite close and between the actual area of desertification and annual precipitation, equal to - 0.395, showing that the relationship is weak and negative, a regression equation has been developed for changes in the area of desertification over the years, taking into account both weather conditions and anthropogenic impacts from livestock, making it possible to predict possible changes in the area of desertification and take measures to limit the number of livestock grazed this year.