Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on International Trade in Nigeria: 1990-2024

This study investigated the impact of macroeconomic variables on international trade in Nigeria from 1990 to 2024. The secondary data were collected on Total Trade (TTD), Exchange Rate (EXRR), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Inflation rate (IFR), interest rate (INT), and Trade openness (TRO) and analyzed. The stationary results with augmented dick fuller (ADF) INT, FDI, and TRO were stationary at level while EXRR, IFR and TTD became stationary after differencing. The ARDL-ECM showed the speed of adjustment of 82% disequilibrium in previous period is restored into equilibrium current period. The study further revealed that EXRR has a positive insignificant impact on international trade in Nigeria both in the short run and the long run while inflation rate has a negative significant and a positive significant impact on international trade in Nigeria at 10% and 5% level of significance in the short run and the long run, respectively. In a related development, INT has a negative insignificant and a significant impact on international trade in Nigeria at 5% level of significance in the short run and the long run, respectively. Finally, FDI and TRO have a negative significant impact on international trade in Nigeria at 5% level of significance both in the short run and the long run. The study concluded that macroeconomic variables have significant impact on international trade in Nigeria and recommended that Nigerian government federal ministry of finance and Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment (FMITI) should make policies that will promote channeling of foreign investments into export-oriented and value-added sectors rather than consumption-based or extractive industries. Stronger backward linkages with local firms should be encouraged and central bank of Nigeria should pursue stable inflation through sound monetary and fiscal policies. A moderate and predictable inflation rate can encourage trade competitiveness should be put in place. Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) should continue to pursue and maintain a stable and competitive exchange rate regime with a view to support export competitiveness while minimizing excessive import costs.