From ACEs to Action: Optimism as a Mediator of Justice System Involvement in Late Adolescence

Justice system prevention research has focused heavily on risk factors, overlooking how positive psychological assets may protect vulnerable youth. This study addresses that gap by testing whether optimism mediates the relationship between childhood adversity and arrest in emerging adulthood, and whether this pathway differs by sex. Using data from 2,990 participants in the Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Study, adversity was measured at age nine, optimism at fifteen, and arrest at twenty-two. Logistic regression and mediation analyses showed that optimism partially mediated the adversity–arrest link, with stronger effects for males. Findings highlight optimism as a modifiable target for prevention, suggesting that fostering positive future expectations may reduce justice involvement, especially among high-risk boys.