Climate–agro–adaptative strategies improve rice and potato productivity: Evidence from DSSAT models

This study evaluates rice and potato yield simulation under varying irrigation regimes in subtropical India using the CERES–Rice and SUBSTOR–Potato models. Field data from 2018–2019 were used for model calibration and 2019–2020 for validation, showing strong agreement between observed and simulated yields over different treatments (RMSE n : 15.5% for rice grain yield, 10.5% for potato tuber fresh yield). Future climate projections under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate a yield decline of less than 5% for irrigated rice, while rainfed rice may experience an 8–11% reduction. Potato fresh tuber yields could decline by 15% and 22% under furrow irrigation and by 17% and 25% under drip irrigation in RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Agro–adaptation strategies were assessed to mitigate yield losses, focusing on nitrogen (N) management and planting time adjustments. Increasing N fertilizer levels by 25% over recommended dose helps sustain yields. Delayed planting (Jul 30–Aug 15) maintains irrigated rice yields, whereas rainfed rice suffers declines with late planting. For potatoes, early planting (Nov 1) exacerbates yield reductions, while planting on Nov 27 sustains yields. These findings highlight the role of irrigation, nutrient management, and optimized planting schedules in enhancing crop resilience under climate change, offering valuable insights for sustainable water and nutrient use. • CERES-Rice and SUBSTOR-Potato reliably simulated yields under subtropical Indian conditions. • Climate change reduced rainfed rice and potato yields under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. • Increasing nitrogen by 25% sustained rice and potato yields under future climates. • Optimized planting dates and irrigation enhanced crop resilience and resource efficiency.