New Perspective on Post-War Livelihoods Revival in Swat : The Role of Tourism

Can well−paying employment in post−conflict regions deter terrorism and recruitment inthe militant organisations? This article attempts to answer this complex question in thecontext of Swat, Pakistan. Our primary data of 275 households from Swat reveals the dynamismof district’s pre−conflict economy. Empirical estimates with simulation modelling—which assist to understand future changes—suggest that when jobs emerge, andwages and profits increase in non−rural businesses as a result of infrastructural investmentby the government, underemployed and unemployed labour leaves the rural sector—wherethe militants mostly recruit fighters. That is, the revival of non−rural livelihoods acts as abarrier to joining militant organisations like the Taliban. Without such revitalization thelikelihood of the resurgence of militancy is high, as the current media reports reveal. Veryrecent targeted killings and their acceptance of responsibility by the Taliban militants arestrong evidence of militant resurgence and recruitment in Swat.