Model Construction Using a Prospective Approach Based on the Demographic Transition Theory

Model construction using a prospective approach, a new method in social mobility research, has been conducted in an arbitrary manner in previous research and has not yet been established. This study insists that models should be constructed in accordance with the Demographic Transition Theory (DTT). A review of existing studies in different regions and times from an analytical perspective based on the DTT suggests three challenges and opportunities in the prospect approach. First, the rapid demographic transition in non-Western and developing countries makes it difficult to identify the essential factors affecting the reproduction process in different cohorts. Second, the lack of essential variables and information on the demographic structure in the existing datasets prevents us from constructing an appropriate model for each societal and demographic stage. Third, a model unique to each society should be constructed using the framework of the DTT. Finally, this paper argues that models in social stratification and mobility studies should be specified differently in each society and time, yet based on basic frameworks such as the DTT.