In recent years, the number of orbital objects has dramatically increased, especially in the low Earth orbit (LEO) protected region below 2000 km altitude, due to the operation of large constellations, etc. In this situation, space debris mitigation (SDM) is becoming increasingly important. Practices for SDM are summarized in the world SDM guidelines such as IADC SDM Guidelines. In countries where efforts are more advanced, SDM is tied to the laws governing the operation of launch vehicles and spacecraft. Major SDM guidelines require that the probability of successful disposal (PSD) of launch vehicles and spacecraft be greater than 0.9. This is based on past orbital environment simulations and is a goal that should be achieved for the entire LEO protected region. On the other hand, it is customary required to evaluate PSD for individual systems in the SDM guidelines. This poses several issues, and we propose a methodology to address these issues.
Sato et al. (Thu,) studied this question.