Spatiotemporal Evolution, Regional Differences, and Configurational Paths of Green Total Factor Productivity in China’s Power Industry Driven by Digital Economy Factors

Under the dual strategic imperatives of carbon neutrality and digital transformation, the power industry plays a pivotal role in advancing green and low-carbon development. Green Total Factor Productivity (GTFP) provides a comprehensive measure of efficiency in the power sector under energy and environmental constraints. Using panel data from 31 Chinese provinces over the period 2012–2023, this study employs a super-efficiency Slacks-Based Measure (SBM) model, kernel density estimation, standard deviation ellipse analysis, the Gini coefficient, and fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) to systematically examine the spatiotemporal evolution, regional disparities, and digital-driven improvement pathways of power industry GTFP. The results indicate that national power-sector GTFP exhibits a fluctuating upward trend, accompanied by pronounced regional heterogeneity. A distinct spatial pattern has emerged, characterized by rapid improvement in the western region, relative stability in the eastern region, contraction in the central region, and persistent lagging in the northeastern region. Spatially, the distribution has evolved from an initial east–west dual-core structure to a three-tier gradient pattern led by the west, stabilized in the east, and depressed in the central region. Kernel density estimation reveals a clear multi-peak polarization trend, while standard deviation ellipse analysis shows a relatively stable spatial center with continuously expanding dispersion along the northeast–southwest axis. Further analysis demonstrates that interregional differences remain the primary source of overall inequality, with rapidly widening intraregional disparities in the western region. Configurational analysis identifies five digital-economy-driven pathways to high GTFP, highlighting that no single optimal configuration exists. Instead, multiple combinations of technological, organizational, and environmental conditions jointly facilitate GTFP enhancement. These findings provide empirical evidence to support differentiated and precision-oriented policy design for promoting coordinated digital transformation and green development in China’s power industry.