Moderating Roles of the Big Five in Valence–Arousal Dynamics: A TFace-Bi-GRU-SE and CTSEM Study

Existing research confirms associations between Big Five personality traits and emotional states, yet investigations into how personality traits modulate emotional dynamics and their gender-specific patterns remain limited. The present study developed a TFace-Bi-GRU-SE deep learning model that achieved a weighted accuracy of 63.50 ± 0.98% (peak single-run: 64.96%) and an F1 score of 65.21% in performance testing, with a single-inference time of 14.1 s, outperforming traditional methods. The model processed 10 min video recordings from 30 participants (19,262 observations), generating time-series data for valence (P) and arousal (A). Combined with Big Five personality assessments, continuous-time structural equation modeling (CTSEM) revealed distinct emotional dynamics: both P and A exhibited significant negative autoregression (−0.056 and −0.558, p < 0.001), with A reverting to baseline substantially faster (half-life: 1.2 s) than P (half-life: 12.3 s); cross-lagged effects were nonsignificant (P_A: 0.007; A_P: −0.026, p > 0.05). Arousal demonstrated greater instantaneous volatility (=0.339) than valence (=0.286, p < 0.001), with positive covariation between dimensions (0.218, p = 0.006). Exploratory analyses (N = 30) indicated that higher neuroticism and openness scores were associated with elevated arousal (Cohen’s d > 0.8), whereas higher agreeableness and conscientiousness scores were associated with elevated valence (d > 0.8). Gender moderated the neuroticism–arousal relationship, with more potent effects in females (r = 0.746, p = 0.008). Robustness analyses demonstrated high stability of core DRIFT parameters (P_P, A_A): bootstrap resampling (n = 50) yielded coefficients of variation < 0.35 with 100% directional consistency; subgroup validation confirmed cross-sample invariance. Sensitivity analyses revealed that an additional 8% measurement error induced less than 9% bias (8.3% for both P_P and A_A) in autoregressive parameters while preserving half-life ratios, confirming CTSEM’s capacity to extract reliable dynamics from moderately accurate AI outputs. Bootstrap and Bayesian analyses identified ten personality–DRIFT associations with directional consistency ≥ 70%; these constitute preliminary hypotheses for adequately powered future studies (N ≥ 61). This study provides methodological foundations for personalized affective intervention research. Data and code are publicly available (see Data Availability Statement).