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April 3, 2026Journal of Water and Climate ChangeOpen Access

Compounding heat waves and extreme precipitation in India using event coincidence analysis

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Authors

SSSwarnendu SahaDSDivya SardanaAJAshish Manoj J

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Overview

Quantitative analysis shows increasing correlation of heat waves and heavy rainfall in India, indicating climate change effects.

Key Points

  • The study aims to quantify the relationship between heat waves and heavy rainfall in India from 1951 to 2020.
  • Utilized Event Coincidence Analysis to evaluate relationships between heat waves and rainfall events.
  • Calculated Precursor Coincidence Rate (PCR) and Trigger Coincidence Rate (TCR) for different time windows.
  • Conducted seasonal analysis to assess heat wave-rainfall coupling variations.
  • TCR declined for shorter intervals (ΔT = 2, 5) but increased by 50% for longer intervals (ΔT = 7) indicating more rainfall after heat waves.
  • PCR rose consistently, showing a rise from 13% to 27% of grid points experiencing heat waves before rainfall.
  • Stronger coupling between heat waves and rainfall observed in winter and pre-monsoon seasons, with high variability noted in recent decades.

Cite This Study

Saha et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69cf5ebc5a333a821460d439https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2026.312
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