Modeling and Performance Analysis of a Hybrid Forward Osmosis–Membrane Distillation System for Seawater Desalination

Hybrid desalination systems that combine osmotic and thermal driving forces offer a promising route to improve water recovery and energy efficiency for high-salinity feedwaters where conventional processes face limitations. This study presents a comprehensive mathematical modeling framework and performance analysis of a hybrid forward osmosis–membrane distillation (FO-MD) system for seawater desalination. The novel contributions include: (1) a coupled heat, mass, and solute transport model that explicitly accounts for concentration polarization, temperature polarization, reverse salt flux, and their dynamic interactions through the draw solution loop; (2) a quantitative assessment of the synergistic regeneration effect, showing how MD maintains draw solution concentration and stabilizes FO performance over time; (3) systematic evaluation of parameter sensitivity to polarization effects; and (4) comparative energy analysis quantifying specific energy consumption relative to standalone processes. Model predictions were validated against published experimental data, showing good agreement for both FO and MD fluxes (R2 > 0.94). The MD flux increased from approximately 2–3 LMH at 30 °C to 17 LMH at 50 °C, confirming vapor pressure enhancement. FO water flux increased significantly with draw solution concentration from 0.2 to 1.1 M due to higher osmotic pressure differences. Time-dependent simulations of the integrated FO-MD system showed that MD regeneration reduces draw solution dilution by 60% compared to standalone FO, maintaining FO flux approximately 43% higher after 6 h of operation. Sensitivity analysis revealed that FO predictions are moderately sensitive to mass transfer coefficients (6–9% flux change for 20% parameter variation), while MD shows lower sensitivity to heat transfer coefficients (3–5%). Energy analysis indicates that FO-MD hybridization reduces thermal energy consumption by 15–40% compared to standalone MD, with specific energy consumption of 382 kWh/m3 (40.2 kWh/m3 primary energy equivalent) when using low-grade heat. The obtained results demonstrate that FO-MD hybridization enhances water recovery and operational stability compared to standalone processes, supporting its potential for energy-efficient desalination of high-salinity brines and industrial wastewaters where low-grade heat is available.