Objective: To analyze budget planning and execution in 644 municipalities in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, from 2014 to 2023, using disaggregated data from the I-Plan dimension of the IEGM. Method: Quantitative, longitudinal, and descriptive study based on AUDESP data. We examined: (i) budget amendments, (ii) alignment between planned physical targets and delivered outputs, and (iii) the match between physical results and financial resources. Indicators were rescaled to a 0–10 metric, enabling comparisons over time and across population-size strata. Originality/Relevance: This study provides time-comparable empirical evidence on how municipal budgets translate plans into execution, highlighting systematic differences associated with population size. By integrating fiscal and programmatic dimensions, it sharpens the debate on fiscal governance and local planning capacity. Results: The findings indicate low alignment between budget planning and execution across the municipalities. Budget amendments were high and recurrent throughout the period and, in most years, exceeded major inflation indices, suggesting reduced stability of the approved budget as an ex ante anchor for execution. Both the alignment between targets and outputs and the physical–financial match deteriorated from 2020 onward, with no return to pre-2020 levels through 2023. Patterns differ by size: smaller municipalities showed, on average, higher scores in target–output alignment and physical–financial match, whereas larger municipalities exhibited a lower intensity of budget amendments. Theoretical/Methodological contributions: By jointly assessing three dimensions of planning–execution alignment, the study characterizes profiles of budget coherence by municipal size, supporting research on formalism, state capacity, and budget governance at the subnational level. Methodologically, it advances by standardizing and rescaling disaggregated I-Plan indicators onto a common scale, improving comparability across years and strata and reinforcing their use for monitoring and supporting municipal budget planning.
Torrezan et al. (Fri,) studied this question.