From Data to Decisions: Assessment of Carrying Capacity for Coastal Tourism Management in the Sindhudurg District of Maharashtra, India

Over-tourism on sandy beaches compromises ecological integrity, degrades the recreational quality of coastal environments, and generates negative socio-economic externalities. In this context, the assessment of tourist carrying capacity serves as a vital tool to inform and empower beach management with actionable data. This study estimated the tourist carrying capacity of seven beaches in Sindhudurg district, Maharashtra, India. The methodology encompasses three levels: physical carrying capacity (PCC), real carrying capacity (RCC), and effective carrying capacity (ECC). PCC was calculated based on a WTO-recommended density of one user per 10 m². Subsequently, RCC was determined by incorporating limiting environmental variablessunlight availability, rainfall, and temperaturewhile ECC measured management capacity using ten infrastructure and service indicators. Results show a uniform 79% reduction from PCC to RCC due to environmental constraints. Further declines in ECC were observed, varying across beaches in accordance with site-specific management capacities. While beaches such as Tarkarli and Malwan exhibited underutilisation relative to their ECC, others such as Achara and Sagareshwar neared sustainable thresholds. These disparities highlight a need for differentiated management responses, particularly for high-risk beaches with limited infrastructure. The findings can be instrumental in improving the management capacity of the beach and, on a broader scale, in the sustainable development of the study area. Furthermore, these findings will further assist in addressing the primary concern of uneven distribution of tourist footfall, which is currently concentrated on a limited number of beaches, by quantifying the decoupled capacity and utilisation realities of the beaches.