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This study examines how the structure of import logistics affects fiscal performance and exposure to disruptions in Ecuador.

April 8, 2026LogisticsOpen Access

Modal and Territorial Concentration in Import Logistics: Assessing Disruption Exposure Using Customs Revenue Data

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This study examines how the structure of import logistics affects fiscal performance and exposure to disruptions in Ecuador.
Analyzed 2023-2024 customs revenue data to evaluate logistics concentration using Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI).
Conducted scenario-based stress tests to assess effects of redistribution and disruption events.
Focused on maritime transport's role and Guayaquil's influence in customs revenue.
High dependence on maritime transport was observed, with Guayaquil's customs district dominating revenue.
HHI values indicated strong concentration in logistics.
Moderate disruptions in major nodes were found to have significant fiscal impacts, while limited modal diversity offered slight reductions in vulnerability.

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Analysis assesses disruption exposure in import logistics, indicating logistics concentration worsens fiscal vulnerability.

Basantes-Garcés et al. (2026) studied this question.

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