Theoretical modeling reveals dual effects of pollution on cloud reflectance, indicating cooling in thin clouds and warming in thick clouds.
By increasing droplet concentration and thereby the optical thickness of a cloud, pollution acts to increase the reflectance (albedo) of clouds; by increasing the absorption coefficient it acts to decrease the reflectance. Calculations suggest that the former effect (brightening of the clouds in reflection, hence climatically a cooling effect) dominates for thin to moderately thick clouds, whereas for sufficiently thick clouds the latter effect (climatically a warming effect) can become dominant.
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S. Twomey (1977) studied this question.
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