Study of Changing Land Use Land Cover from Forests to Cropland on Rainfall: Case Study of Alabama’s Black Belt Region

This study explores the relationship between land use and land cover (LULC) changes and a significant cyclogenesis event that occurred in Alabama’s Black Belt region from 6 to 7 October 2021. Utilizing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, two scenarios were analyzed: the WRF Control Run, which maintained unchanged LULC, and the WRF Sensitivity Experiment, which converted 56.5% of forested areas into cropland to assess the impact on storm dynamics. Quantitative comparisons of predicted rainfall from both simulations were conducted against observed data. The control run demonstrated a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 1.64, indicating accurate rainfall predictions. In contrast, the modified scenario yielded an RMSE of 2.01, suggesting lower reliability. The Mean Bias (MB) values were 1.32 for the control run and 1.58 for the modified scenario, revealing notable discrepancies in accuracy. The coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.247 for the control run and 0.270 for the modified scenario. The Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) value was 0.1567 for the control run but dropped to −0.2257 following LULC modifications. Sensitivity analyses revealed a 60% increase in heat flux and a 36% rise in precipitation, underscoring the significant impact of LULC on meteorological outcomes. While this study concentrated on the Black Belt region, the methodologies employed could apply to various other areas, though caution is advised when generalizing these results to different climates and socio-economic contexts. Further research is necessary to enhance the model’s applicability across diverse environments.