Long-term urban carbon dioxide observations reveal spatial and temporal dynamics related to urban characteristics and growth

Cities are concentrated areas of CO₂ emissions and have become the foci of policies for mitigation actions. However, atmospheric measurement networks suitable for evaluating urban emissions over time are scarce. Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO₂ mole fractions from five sites across Utah's metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. We examine "excess" CO₂ above background conditions resulting from local emissions and meteorological conditions. We ascribe CO₂ trends to changes in emissions, since we did not find long-term trends in atmospheric mixing proxies. Three contrasting CO₂ trends emerged across urban types: negative trends at a residential-industrial site, positive trends at a site surrounded by rapid suburban growth, and relatively constant CO₂ over time at multiple sites in the established, residential, and commercial urban core. Analysis of population within the atmospheric footprints of the different sites reveals approximately equal increases in population influencing the observed CO₂, implying a nonlinear relationship with CO₂ emissions: Population growth in rural areas that experienced suburban development was associated with increasing emissions while population growth in the developed urban core was associated with stable emissions. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO₂ emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles.