PulseExploreJournal ClubDebatesTrendingResearchersJournals
Instagram
HomeExploreJournal ClubTrending
Synapse
⌘+K
Synapse
January 6, 2015Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics471 citations

On the Practice of Lagging Variables to Avoid Simultaneity

View Full Paper
WRW. Robert Reed

Key Points

  • The aim is to evaluate the effectiveness of using lagged variables to avoid simultaneity bias in economic research.
  • Analyzed the common practice of replacing explanatory variables with their lagged values.
  • Assessed the consistency of estimates and validity of hypothesis testing in such models.
  • Proposed the use of lagged values in instrumental variable estimation as an alternative.
  • Estimates obtained by using lagged values are still inconsistent, indicating that simultaneity bias is not avoided.
  • Hypothesis tests associated with these estimates are invalid, leading to unreliable conclusions.
  • Instrumental variable estimation is effective only if lagged values are appropriately correlated with the explanatory variable.

Abstract

Abstract A common practice in applied economics research consists of replacing a suspected simultaneously determined explanatory variable with its lagged value. This note demonstrates that this practice does not enable one to avoid simultaneity bias. The associated estimates are still inconsistent, and hypothesis testing is invalid. An alternative is to use lagged values of the endogenous variable in instrumental variable estimation. However, this is only an effective estimation strategy if the lagged values do not themselves belong in the respective estimating equation, and if they are sufficiently correlated with the simultaneously determined explanatory variable.

Ask AI
Helpful
Bookmark
Share
View Full Paper

Cite This Study

W. Robert Reed (2015) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69d7d0887392c8ce61bedec4https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12088
Ask AI
Helpful
Bookmark
Share
View Full Paper