Limited potential of harvest index improvement to reduce methane emissions from rice paddies

Rice is a staple food for nearly half of the world's population, but rice paddies constitute a major source of anthropogenic CH₄ emissions. Root exudates from growing rice plants are an important substrate for methane-producing microorganisms. Therefore, breeding efforts optimizing rice plant photosynthate allocation to grains, i.e., increasing harvest index (HI), are widely expected to reduce CH₄ emissions with higher yield. Here we show, by combining a series of experiments, meta-analyses and an expert survey, that the potential of CH₄ mitigation from rice paddies through HI improvement is in fact small. Whereas HI improvement reduced CH₄ emissions under continuously flooded (CF) irrigation, it did not affect CH₄ emissions in systems with intermittent irrigation (II). We estimate that future plant breeding efforts aimed at HI improvement to the theoretical maximum value will reduce CH₄ emissions in CF systems by 4.4%. However, CF systems currently make up only a small fraction of the total rice growing area (i.e., 27% of the Chinese rice paddy area). Thus, to achieve substantial CH₄ mitigation from rice agriculture, alternative plant breeding strategies may be needed, along with alternative management.