A productivity prediction model for fractured horizontal wells in tight sandstone gas reservoirs: Accounting for reservoir heterogeneity and non-uniform fracture distribution

The growing global demand for natural gas has positioned tight gas reservoirs as a crucial unconventional resource. However, their strong heterogeneity and complex fracture distributions pose significant challenges for accurate productivity prediction. Existing models often fail to account for multiple flow mechanisms, leading to deviations in forecasting. This study develops an advanced productivity prediction model for fractured horizontal wells by integrating an equivalent wellbore theory with a generalized pseudo-pressure function. The model systematically incorporates stress sensitivity, slip effects, threshold pressure gradient, and non-Darcy flow, providing a more accurate representation of gas flow behavior. New model validation using data from a multi-fractured horizontal well in the Ordos Basin confirms its superior performance over traditional models. Sensitivity analysis highlights the critical influence of fracture spacing, half-length variations, and matrix permeability heterogeneity on well productivity. These findings offer valuable insights for optimizing well design and development strategies in tight gas reservoirs.