Rapid technological progress in white light-emitting diodes and its source in innovation and technology spillovers

Since their introduction to the market in 1996, white light-emitting diodes (LEDs) have greatly improved in performance, efficiency and manufacturing cost. Understanding the extent and mechanisms of rapid progress in white LED technology can provide valuable insights for accelerating innovation in other demand-side clean energy technologies critical for reducing global carbon emissions. Here we show, through cost and performance modelling based on data from literature review, patent analysis and expert interviews, that the efficiency of top-performing warm white GaN-based LED packages increased from 5.8% in 2003 to 38.8% in 2020. Over the same period, the manufacturing cost of low-to-mid-power LED packages decreased by 95.5% from US$1.1 to US$0.05 (in 2020 US dollars). We find that technology spillovers from other sectors accounted for at least 8.5% of efficiency improvements and nearly all consumer experience enhancements, playing an important role in widespread LED adoption in lighting.