The uptake of European soy production: Insights from a participatory agent-based model

While there is potential for soy production in Europe, many European regions still struggle to adopt soy cultivation. Consequently, the European market is heavily dependent on imports from overseas. At the same time, in line with current literature, the EU is paying specific attention to the necessity of yield improvement through research funding, training, and learning instruments, as well as allocating direct subsidies for protein crops. However, it is yet unclear how such efforts could result in the adoption of soy, given farmers' perceptions of yield instability due to climate change and environmental stress factors. This research aims to examine the effect of different factors on soybeans adoption in a systemic way, considering socioeconomic and environmental dimensions as well as farmers' decision-making dynamics. Relying on the case Flanders, one of the struggling European regions, and considering potential value chains for arable and dairy farming, this research develops a participatory agent-based model. The results show the interaction between yield and price, highlight the limitations of subsidies' effects and support the focus on learning, training, and the importance of yield improvements in the adoption process of soybean in Flanders. This study provides a dynamic perspective into the problem of soybean adoption in Europe by examining farmers' decision-making processes and the social environment that influences their choices and perceptions of success. • A systemic and dynamic perspective is needed when discussing the adoption of European soy. • A multitude of factors should be considered when analyzing farmers' behaviors. • A participatory agent-based model can inform policies through simulation scenarios. • R&D investments targeting yield improvements seem to be the most effective policy. • Higher prices or other economic incentives may not lead to stable soy production.