Longitudinal Assessment of Livelihood Vulnerability and Resilience in Analanjirofo Agroforestry Systems, 2021–2026

{ "background": "Agroforestry systems are promoted for enhancing livelihood resilience in tropical cyclone-prone regions, yet longitudinal evidence quantifying their capacity to buffer climatic shocks remains scarce. The Analanjirofo region, a major vanilla-producing area, is characterised by high exposure to cyclones and economic volatility.", "purpose and objectives": "This study longitudinally assesses the dynamics of livelihood vulnerability and resilience within agroforestry-dependent communities. It aims to quantify changes in vulnerability indices following cyclone exposure and identify key socio-ecological determinants of resilience.", "methodology": "A panel study of 320 households across eight communes was conducted over a five-year period, encompassing multiple cyclone events. A modified Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) was constructed from survey, climatic, and spatial data. Changes were analysed using a linear mixed-effects model: Vit = \β0 + \β1 (Cycloneit) + \β2 (Agroforestryi) + \β3 (Cycloneit \× Agroforestryi) + \ + \εit, where Vit is the vulnerability score for household i at time t, with household random effects \μᵢ. Robust standard errors were clustered at the commune level.", "findings": "Households with diversified agroforestry plots exhibited a 22% smaller increase in post-cyclone LVI scores compared to those reliant on monoculture vanilla (95% CI: 15% to 29%). The buffering effect was primarily mediated through more rapid recovery of subsistence food sources and income diversity. Key themes from complementary interviews highlighted the critical role of indigenous tree species in soil stabilisation and emergency food provision.", "conclusion": "Diversified agroforestry systems significantly attenuate livelihood vulnerability to cyclonic shocks in the medium term. However, their protective capacity is contingent upon maintained crop diversity and access to land.", "recommendations": "Policy should prioritise support