Policy Reform Trajectories and Rural Livelihood Outcomes: A Comparative Analysis of Zimbabwean Agriculture, 2021–2026

{ "background": "Agricultural policy reforms in Zimbabwe have been implemented with the stated aim of revitalising the sector and improving rural livelihoods. However, the complex interplay between different policy trajectories and their heterogeneous effects on household welfare remains insufficiently understood, particularly in the post-land reform era.", "purpose and objectives": "This study comparatively analyses the effects of two distinct national agricultural policy trajectories—market-led liberalisation and state-centred support—on multidimensional livelihood outcomes for rural households. It aims to identify which policy mechanisms most significantly influence resilience and income.", "methodology": "A mixed-methods, longitudinal comparative design was employed. Panel data from 480 households across four districts were analysed using a fixed-effects regression model: Yit = \β0 + \β1Pit + \β2Xit + \ + \εit, where Yit represents livelihood outcomes, Pit policy exposure, and Xᵢₜ controls. Robust standard errors were clustered at the ward level. This was complemented by 36 in-depth interviews for contextual analysis.", "findings": "Households primarily engaged in state-centred support programmes reported a 15% higher average crop diversity index, a key resilience indicator, compared to those under market-led arrangements. However, this effect was not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level for aggregate household income. Qualitative data revealed a prominent theme of reduced autonomy linked to input subsidy programmes.", "conclusion": "The study concludes that policy type differentially impacts livelihood dimensions, with state support enhancing specific resilience metrics but not uniformly translating into income gains, while market-led approaches show variable and context-dependent outcomes.", "recommendations": "Policymakers should design hybrid frameworks that couple state-provisioned resilience-building supports with mechanisms to strengthen market linkages and choice. Future programmes must be tailored to agro-ecological and socio-economic contexts rather than employing a uniform national approach.", "key words": "agricultural policy, livelihood outcomes, comparative