Sequencing Technology Adoption: A Longitudinal Analysis of Mobile-Enabled Soil Diagnostics among Agrochemical Dealers and Farmers in Ashanti Region, Ghana

{ "background": "Agricultural technology adoption in sub-Saharan Africa is often studied as a single-step process, neglecting the sequential decisions made by different actors in the input supply chain. The introduction of mobile-enabled soil testing kits presents a complex adoption puzzle involving both agrochemical dealers and their farmer clients.", "purpose and objectives": "This study aims to analyse the sequential adoption trajectories of mobile-enabled soil diagnostics, examining the interdependent decisions of input dealers and farmers over time. It seeks to identify the factors that enable or constrain adoption at each stage of the technology sequencing process.", "methodology": "A longitudinal, mixed-methods panel study was conducted in the Ashanti Region. A stratified random sample of agrochemical dealers (n=120) and a panel of their linked farmer clients (n=360) were surveyed at three waves. Adoption sequencing was modelled using a bivariate probit model with partial observability, specified as P(Yiᵈ=1, Yjᶠ=1 | X) = \Φ(\β0 + \β1Xiᵈ + \β2Xjᶠ + \εij), where Yᵈ and Yᶠ represent dealer and farmer adoption, respectively. Robust standard errors were clustered at the dealer level.", "findings": "Dealer adoption was a critical prerequisite for subsequent farmer uptake; 78% of farmers who adopted the technology were clients of early-adopting dealers. The model showed that dealer training and perceived profitability significantly increased the probability of initial dealer adoption (\β = 0.42, 95% CI [0.21, 0.63]). A key barrier identified was farmers' delayed trust in dealer-interpreted digital results compared to traditional laboratory reports.", "conclusion": "Technology adoption in this context is a two-stage, interdependent sequence, not a parallel process. Successful scaling requires securing dealer buy-in first, as they act as essential intermediaries and trust brokers for digital agricultural