Evaluating Bundled Veterinary and Insurance Services on Herd Resilience among Karamoja Pastoralists: A Propensity Score Matching Analysis

{ "background": "Pastoralist livelihoods in the Karamoja region are highly vulnerable to climate-induced livestock losses. While index-based livestock insurance (IBLI) has been promoted, its standalone efficacy is debated. Bundling IBLI with essential veterinary services is a proposed mechanism to enhance herd resilience, but rigorous evaluations of such integrated programmes are scarce.", "purpose and objectives": "This working paper evaluates the causal impact of a bundled intervention—providing index-based livestock insurance coupled with routine veterinary care—on key herd resilience outcomes among pastoralist households.", "methodology": "We employ a quasi-experimental design using cross-sectional survey data from treated and non-treated pastoralist communities. The primary analytical tool is propensity score matching (PSM) to control for observed selection bias. The average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) is estimated using a kernel matching algorithm. Robust standard errors are calculated to account for potential model misspecification. The core statistical model is: $ATT = E[Y(1)|D=1, p(X)] - E[Y(0)|D=0, p(X)]$, where Y is the outcome, D is treatment status, and $p(X)$ is the propensity score.", "findings": "Households accessing the bundled service demonstrated a statistically significant 18% higher livestock survival rate following a major drought shock compared to matched controls (ATT = 0.18, 95% CI: 0.09 to 0.27). The integration also correlated with increased offtake of veterinary services and reduced distress sales.", "conclusion": "Bundling insurance with veterinary support shows a positive, significant effect on herd resilience, suggesting synergies that address both ex-ante risk reduction and ex-post financial recovery.", "recommendations": "Policymakers and development partners should design and fund integrated livestock support packages. Future programmes should consider flexible bundling mechanisms and explore sustainable delivery models, including private sector involvement.", "key words": "bundled services