Intertemporal allocation of irrigation water in the Mayurakshi Project (India): An application of chance‐constrained linear programing

This study develops an optimal cropping pattern and a reservoir management policy for the Mayurakshi irrigation project (India). Two chance‐constrained linear programing models are formulated to account for the stochastic nature of the monthly inflows. The models also consider the increased economic opportunity offered by the introduction of new high‐yielding crop varieties. The results clearly indicate that a change in the existing cropping pattern and reservoir management policy is desirable and is consistent with the maximization of net return to the project area. The existing supply of nitrogen fertilizer in the command area is found to be inadequate to allow the best use of other resources, including irrigation water. As the probability of occurrence of a drought or a flood is kept within a limit of 10%, the crop activities in the optimal cropping pattern suffer from drought or flood conditions no more than 10% of the time. Thus the resulting cropping patterns should be preferred by the tradition‐bound farmers of the command area, who have a low risk‐bearing ability.