Severely malnourished children with a low weight-for-height have a higher mortality than those with a low mid-upper-arm-circumference: I. Empirical data demonstrates Simpson’s paradox

Children with a low WHZ, but a MUAC above the SAM cut-off point are at high risk of death. Simpson's paradox due to confounding from oedema and mathematical coupling may make previous statistical analyses which failed to distinguish the diagnostic groups an unreliable guide to policy. WHZ needs to be retained as an independent criterion for diagnosis of SAM and methods found to identify those children with a low WHZ, but not a low MUAC, in the community.